2025 NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR ELECTION: 5 P.C. TARGET SEATS
1. LABRADOR WEST
2021 Result: NDP +21.3
Truthfully, anything I said regarding the Liberals targeting this district could be repeated here. A wide open seat that either three of the parties could win. The PC’s have a much better track record than the Liberals in Lab West, a district which has often flipped between blue and orange. Whether the PCs can take this district may lie solely in how residents feel about the Churchill Falls MOU. It’s my opinion that the MOU has not been the ace in the hole the Liberals were hoping for, and if residents of Labrador West are more concerned about things such as healthcare or the cost of living, the later of which is a major concern in places like Labrador, then the PCs may sail to victory in this district.
2. HUMBER - GROS MORNE
2021 Result: Liberal +30.4
Since 2015, this district has been home to the Premier of Newfoundland & Labrador. Dwight Ball carried it in 2015 and 2019, while Furey secured it in a 2020 by-election and held again in 2021. This time around there is no Premier to be found, as the race is between Helen Reid and Mike Goosney. Mike is no stranger to politics, he’s run here twice before: during the 2020 by-election, and during the 2015 election, albeit as an NDP candidate. Mike has been putting in a lot of hard work, and he’s hoping it pays off. This area shifted towards the conservatives in the federal election, and a place like Deer Lake seems ripe for a provincial shift to the right as well. Both Wakeham and Hogan have spent time here, indicating both parties think this district is both at play and critical to their parties’ chances at winning the election. My gut says that the PCs pull this one off, building on the conservative party success from the federal election.
3. ST. BARBE - L'ANSE AUX MEADOWS
2021 Result: Liberal +4.7
Hidden away on the very tip of the island, St. Barbe has quietly been a very interesting local race. There hasn’t been much coverage on this one, but by all accounts, this is shaping up to be very competitive. It was surprisingly close in 2021, with Liberal Krista Lynn Howell defeating Sheila Fitzgerald by just over 200 votes. This time around, the PCs have nominated Andrea Barbour, a well-known realtor who has quite a robust internet following. The Liberals I’ve spoken to have shown some concern for this district, and for good reason; the slim margins and popularity of the PC candidate are likely keeping Liberal pundits up at night. MP Carol Anstey, and PC leader Tony Wakeham were door knocking with Barbour this weekend, showing us that they’re putting everything into this district in attempt to flip it.
4. ST. GEORGE'S - HUMBER
2021 Result: Liberal +22.8
Sticking to the provincial districts of Long Range Mountains, St. George’s is yet another rural district with no incumbent, giving the Liberals and PC’s equal footing to build from. St. George’s has typically been the better of the three districts, compared to Humber-Gros Morne and St. Barbe, for a base level of PC support, with very respectable vote share results in 2019 and 2021. From the outside looking in, this may seem like a bit of a sleepy race between Lamswood and Cormier, but as Canada Projections just pointed out, St. George’s has seen the most party leader visits out of any other district, showing how important both parties think this race will be. The candidates might not be as strong here as in some of the other districts, but the PC party will be hoping that, once again, enough federal CPC support can bleed over to them to get them over the hump.
5. LEWISPORTE - TWILLINGAGE
2021 Result: Liberal +24.8
You may have noticed a trend. Up to now, all the PC target districts have been seats with no incumbents. Said districts offer essentially a level playing field for all candidates to work out of, giving the PCs generally as good of a shot as the Liberals. However, if the PCs want to form government, they also need to flip Liberal held seats with incumbents. Identifying easy districts to flip has become increasingly more difficult, as the PCs have already captured most of the obvious rural seats.
Lewisporte is an interesting choice. Traditionally, it has leaned conservative, though not in recent time. Federally, there is a lot of CPC support here, which the PCs would be wise to try and tap into. The Liberal incumbent, Bennett, is by all accounts well liked so many of those CPC voters may very well be voting for Bennett the person, not Bennett the Liberal. Tony Wakeham has visited the district multiple times, which tells me they likely are thinking the same thing as I am regarding the district. If the PCs have any hope to form government in any capacity, they will need to flip districts like Lewisporte with popular Liberal MHA’s. If they’re not able to do this, then it’s game over. Lewisporte is likely the one district where there are enough CPC voters to at least give them a chance.
2021 Result: NDP +21.3
Truthfully, anything I said regarding the Liberals targeting this district could be repeated here. A wide open seat that either three of the parties could win. The PC’s have a much better track record than the Liberals in Lab West, a district which has often flipped between blue and orange. Whether the PCs can take this district may lie solely in how residents feel about the Churchill Falls MOU. It’s my opinion that the MOU has not been the ace in the hole the Liberals were hoping for, and if residents of Labrador West are more concerned about things such as healthcare or the cost of living, the later of which is a major concern in places like Labrador, then the PCs may sail to victory in this district.
2. HUMBER - GROS MORNE
2021 Result: Liberal +30.4
Since 2015, this district has been home to the Premier of Newfoundland & Labrador. Dwight Ball carried it in 2015 and 2019, while Furey secured it in a 2020 by-election and held again in 2021. This time around there is no Premier to be found, as the race is between Helen Reid and Mike Goosney. Mike is no stranger to politics, he’s run here twice before: during the 2020 by-election, and during the 2015 election, albeit as an NDP candidate. Mike has been putting in a lot of hard work, and he’s hoping it pays off. This area shifted towards the conservatives in the federal election, and a place like Deer Lake seems ripe for a provincial shift to the right as well. Both Wakeham and Hogan have spent time here, indicating both parties think this district is both at play and critical to their parties’ chances at winning the election. My gut says that the PCs pull this one off, building on the conservative party success from the federal election.
3. ST. BARBE - L'ANSE AUX MEADOWS
2021 Result: Liberal +4.7
Hidden away on the very tip of the island, St. Barbe has quietly been a very interesting local race. There hasn’t been much coverage on this one, but by all accounts, this is shaping up to be very competitive. It was surprisingly close in 2021, with Liberal Krista Lynn Howell defeating Sheila Fitzgerald by just over 200 votes. This time around, the PCs have nominated Andrea Barbour, a well-known realtor who has quite a robust internet following. The Liberals I’ve spoken to have shown some concern for this district, and for good reason; the slim margins and popularity of the PC candidate are likely keeping Liberal pundits up at night. MP Carol Anstey, and PC leader Tony Wakeham were door knocking with Barbour this weekend, showing us that they’re putting everything into this district in attempt to flip it.
4. ST. GEORGE'S - HUMBER
2021 Result: Liberal +22.8
Sticking to the provincial districts of Long Range Mountains, St. George’s is yet another rural district with no incumbent, giving the Liberals and PC’s equal footing to build from. St. George’s has typically been the better of the three districts, compared to Humber-Gros Morne and St. Barbe, for a base level of PC support, with very respectable vote share results in 2019 and 2021. From the outside looking in, this may seem like a bit of a sleepy race between Lamswood and Cormier, but as Canada Projections just pointed out, St. George’s has seen the most party leader visits out of any other district, showing how important both parties think this race will be. The candidates might not be as strong here as in some of the other districts, but the PC party will be hoping that, once again, enough federal CPC support can bleed over to them to get them over the hump.
5. LEWISPORTE - TWILLINGAGE
2021 Result: Liberal +24.8
You may have noticed a trend. Up to now, all the PC target districts have been seats with no incumbents. Said districts offer essentially a level playing field for all candidates to work out of, giving the PCs generally as good of a shot as the Liberals. However, if the PCs want to form government, they also need to flip Liberal held seats with incumbents. Identifying easy districts to flip has become increasingly more difficult, as the PCs have already captured most of the obvious rural seats.
Lewisporte is an interesting choice. Traditionally, it has leaned conservative, though not in recent time. Federally, there is a lot of CPC support here, which the PCs would be wise to try and tap into. The Liberal incumbent, Bennett, is by all accounts well liked so many of those CPC voters may very well be voting for Bennett the person, not Bennett the Liberal. Tony Wakeham has visited the district multiple times, which tells me they likely are thinking the same thing as I am regarding the district. If the PCs have any hope to form government in any capacity, they will need to flip districts like Lewisporte with popular Liberal MHA’s. If they’re not able to do this, then it’s game over. Lewisporte is likely the one district where there are enough CPC voters to at least give them a chance.