2025 NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR ELECTION: 5 LIBERAL TARGET SEATS
1. CONCEPTION BAY SOUTH
2021 Result: Progressive Conservative +20.8
The Liberals have slowly been chipping away at the St. John’s suburbs, an area which has historically been the stronghold of the PC party. In 2021 the Liberals were able to flip Mount Pearl North and likewise were able to flip Conception Bay East – Bell Island during a 2024 by-election in convincing manner. The liberals have been growing their vote share in the urban parts of St. John’s for years, a trend we expect to continue, but now that same trend is starting to bleed into the suburban areas of the city as well.
You could pick any suburban seat as a target seat, and I’m sure the Liberals are targeting all of them, but I’m focusing on CBS for one simple reason: Ken McDonald. About a year ago, he likely would not have been a great asset for the provincial liberals, the stench of Trudeau was all over him, despite being one of the first MP’s to be critical of Trudeau’s leadership (which did ultimately cost McDonald his job). But fortunes have changed; the federal liberals did VERY well on the Avalon Peninsula in the federal election, and McDonald may have saved face by distancing himself from Trudeau. As the former mayor, and former MP, he has the name recognition and the resume to back him up. While margins were wider here in 2021, McDonald is going to draw in a lot of voters and may be able to close that gap quite easily.
2. FERRYLAND
2021 Result: Progressive Conservative +8.2
1976. That’s the last time Ferryland has voted a Liberal into office. Since then, there has been a long list of failed Liberal candidates, some coming closer than others to flipping the district red. The closest liberal was Thomas Best, who came within 3 points of winning in a 1992 by-election. In the last election, Cheryl O’Brien came within 8 points, which while not as close, is about as good as anyone else has done in recent memory. O’Brien is returning as the candidate again in 2025, and is hoping that some of the federal liberal support can bleed over into her provincial campaign. If even a small fraction of that support is transferrable, O’Brien will be within reach of doing so many others have failed to do. The Liberals have pumped a lot of resources into this district, which tells you what they think about their chances.
3. LABRADOR WEST
2021 Result: NDP +21.3
Labrador West might very well be the most important district of the election. It’s completely wide open and any one of the liberals, PC’s, or NDP are in good position to win. Both the Liberals and the PC’s likely need to carry this district; for the Liberals they likely do not win a majority without it, and the PC’s likely do not win the most seats unless they have Labrador West. While the Liberals don’t have a rich history of winning this district, they may be hoping for enough of the NDP vote to bleed over their way to get over the top. Time will tell what will happen, but the early returns from Lab West may be an indicator about how the night will go overall for all three parties.
4. PLACENTIA WEST - BELLEVUE
2021 Result: Progressive Conservative +12.1
If the Liberals are going to build on their majority, they ideally want to do it while flipping some rural seats, just to give them some hope that the rural parts of the island aren’t a lost cause for them in the future. While this may not seem like an obvious Liberal target district at first, by all accounts on the ground PC incumbent Jeff Dwyer is in major trouble. If the PC’s lose this district, they’ll definitely have to do some inward reflection to see where exactly everything went wrong. This hasn’t really been a strong area for the Liberals historically, so it would be an incredibly good result for them if they are able to overcome the conservative lean of the region. In the end this may be more of “the PC’s lost this district” than “the liberals won this district”, but it rarely matters how ugly a win is. The Liberals have put a lot of effort into this district, and it appears that it will likely pay off on election day.
5. FOGO ISLAND - CAPE FREELS
2024 By-Election Result: Progressive Conservative +18.4
Let’s start with stating the obvious: I don’t think any of us expected the PC’s to flip this district during the 2024 by-election. The Bonavista North region has typically leaned liberal, though provincially they often voted with the government. Federally, this area is _very_ liberal, albeit we still don’t have the 2025 federal election poll results. Maybe there’s been a massive shift in the region that we’re not quite aware of yet. But none the less, of all the rural PC seats, I think this is the one which the Liberals likely feel the best about being able to re-flip (other than Placentia West of course). Whether or not its likely is up for discussion, but it’s much more likely than say Baie Verte or Bonavista. Both leaders have spent time on the ground here during the campaign, indicating both feel like this district is critical in their paths to victory. The margins weren’t close during the by-election, but the Liberals are likely banking on a lot of the anti-Trudeau conservative vote to float back to them. Will it happen? Who knows.
2021 Result: Progressive Conservative +20.8
The Liberals have slowly been chipping away at the St. John’s suburbs, an area which has historically been the stronghold of the PC party. In 2021 the Liberals were able to flip Mount Pearl North and likewise were able to flip Conception Bay East – Bell Island during a 2024 by-election in convincing manner. The liberals have been growing their vote share in the urban parts of St. John’s for years, a trend we expect to continue, but now that same trend is starting to bleed into the suburban areas of the city as well.
You could pick any suburban seat as a target seat, and I’m sure the Liberals are targeting all of them, but I’m focusing on CBS for one simple reason: Ken McDonald. About a year ago, he likely would not have been a great asset for the provincial liberals, the stench of Trudeau was all over him, despite being one of the first MP’s to be critical of Trudeau’s leadership (which did ultimately cost McDonald his job). But fortunes have changed; the federal liberals did VERY well on the Avalon Peninsula in the federal election, and McDonald may have saved face by distancing himself from Trudeau. As the former mayor, and former MP, he has the name recognition and the resume to back him up. While margins were wider here in 2021, McDonald is going to draw in a lot of voters and may be able to close that gap quite easily.
2. FERRYLAND
2021 Result: Progressive Conservative +8.2
1976. That’s the last time Ferryland has voted a Liberal into office. Since then, there has been a long list of failed Liberal candidates, some coming closer than others to flipping the district red. The closest liberal was Thomas Best, who came within 3 points of winning in a 1992 by-election. In the last election, Cheryl O’Brien came within 8 points, which while not as close, is about as good as anyone else has done in recent memory. O’Brien is returning as the candidate again in 2025, and is hoping that some of the federal liberal support can bleed over into her provincial campaign. If even a small fraction of that support is transferrable, O’Brien will be within reach of doing so many others have failed to do. The Liberals have pumped a lot of resources into this district, which tells you what they think about their chances.
3. LABRADOR WEST
2021 Result: NDP +21.3
Labrador West might very well be the most important district of the election. It’s completely wide open and any one of the liberals, PC’s, or NDP are in good position to win. Both the Liberals and the PC’s likely need to carry this district; for the Liberals they likely do not win a majority without it, and the PC’s likely do not win the most seats unless they have Labrador West. While the Liberals don’t have a rich history of winning this district, they may be hoping for enough of the NDP vote to bleed over their way to get over the top. Time will tell what will happen, but the early returns from Lab West may be an indicator about how the night will go overall for all three parties.
4. PLACENTIA WEST - BELLEVUE
2021 Result: Progressive Conservative +12.1
If the Liberals are going to build on their majority, they ideally want to do it while flipping some rural seats, just to give them some hope that the rural parts of the island aren’t a lost cause for them in the future. While this may not seem like an obvious Liberal target district at first, by all accounts on the ground PC incumbent Jeff Dwyer is in major trouble. If the PC’s lose this district, they’ll definitely have to do some inward reflection to see where exactly everything went wrong. This hasn’t really been a strong area for the Liberals historically, so it would be an incredibly good result for them if they are able to overcome the conservative lean of the region. In the end this may be more of “the PC’s lost this district” than “the liberals won this district”, but it rarely matters how ugly a win is. The Liberals have put a lot of effort into this district, and it appears that it will likely pay off on election day.
5. FOGO ISLAND - CAPE FREELS
2024 By-Election Result: Progressive Conservative +18.4
Let’s start with stating the obvious: I don’t think any of us expected the PC’s to flip this district during the 2024 by-election. The Bonavista North region has typically leaned liberal, though provincially they often voted with the government. Federally, this area is _very_ liberal, albeit we still don’t have the 2025 federal election poll results. Maybe there’s been a massive shift in the region that we’re not quite aware of yet. But none the less, of all the rural PC seats, I think this is the one which the Liberals likely feel the best about being able to re-flip (other than Placentia West of course). Whether or not its likely is up for discussion, but it’s much more likely than say Baie Verte or Bonavista. Both leaders have spent time on the ground here during the campaign, indicating both feel like this district is critical in their paths to victory. The margins weren’t close during the by-election, but the Liberals are likely banking on a lot of the anti-Trudeau conservative vote to float back to them. Will it happen? Who knows.