GUT-PREDICTION FOR 2025 NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR PROVINCIAL ELECTION
DATE: JULY 20TH 2025
CLICK HERE TO SEE INTERACTIVE MAP OF PROJECTION
POPULAR VOTE BY REGION:
|
PROVINCE-WIDE
ST. JOHN'S SUBURBS
EASTERN/CENTRAL NEWFOUNDLAND
|
ST. JOHN'S CITY
AVALON PENINSULA
WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
|
ST. JOHN'S METROPOLITAN AREA
AVALON (EXCLUDING ST. JOHN'S CMA)
LABRADOR
|
REGIONAL VOTE SHARE
| 2025 NL PROVINCIAL ELECTION RESULTS | CHANGE FROM 2021 ELECTION (pp) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REGION | %LIBERAL | % PC | % NDP | % OTHER | LIBERAL | PC | NDP | OTHER |
| PROVINCIAL RESULT | 44.7 | 43.5 | 8.3 | 3.5 | -3.6 | +4.7 | +0.3 | -1.4 |
| ST. JOHN'S CITY | 48.9 | 24.0 | 27.0 | 0.0 | +0.1 | -1.8 | 1.9 | -0.2 |
| ST. JOHN'S CMA | 45.4 | 33.5 | 16.1 | 5.1 | +2.4 | -1.5 | -0.2 | -0.7 |
| SUBURBAN ST. JOHN'S | 42.6 | 41.0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | +5.5 | -3.2 | +0.1 | -2.3 |
| AVALON | 47.7 | 36.8 | 12.1 | 3.5 | +1.4 | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.8 |
| AVALON (MINUS ST. JOHN'S CMA) | 52.7 | 44.1 | 3.3 | 0.0 | -1.8 | +2.4 | -0.1 | -0.5 |
| EASTERN/CENTRAL NL | 41.6 | 56.0 | 2.3 | 0.1 | -4.0 | +5.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 |
| WESTERN NL | 41.7 | 43.4 | 4.3 | 10.7 | -10.7 | +8.8 | +2.5 | -0.5 |
| LABRADOR | 41.2 | 37.5 | 21.2 | 0.0 | -8.3 | +13.0 | -4.5 | -0.3 |
REGIONAL SEAT COUNT
| 2025 NL PROVINCIAL ELECTION RESULTS | CHANGE FROM 2021 ELECTION | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REGION | LIBERAL | PC | NDP | OTHER | LIBERAL | PC | NDP | OTHER |
| PROVINCIAL RESULT | 19 | 17 | 2 | 2 | -3 | +4 | 0 | 0 |
| ST. JOHN'S CITY | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| ST. JOHN'S CMA | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | +1 | 0 |
| SUBURBAN ST. JOHN'S | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| AVALON | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | -2 | +1 | 0 |
| AVALON (MINUS ST. JOHN'S CMA) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EASTERN/CENTRAL NL | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | -3 | +3 | 0 | 0 |
| WESTERN NL | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | +2 | 0 | 0 |
| LABRADOR | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -1 | 0 |