The Numbers Discord Predicts the 2025 Newfoundland & Labrador Election
Date: September 30th 2025 Survey Dates: September 9th - 29th 2025
SYNOPSIS: Between September 9th and 29th, I asked fellow members of The Numbers Discord community to predict which party would win a specific district to be contested during the upcoming provincial election. The questions were asked in a series of Discord polls, where users could select one party, and vote only one time. Each poll was active for 24 hours. The question asked was:
"Who do you think wins the district of [DISTRICT NAME]?"
The selectable responses were "Liberal", "Progressive Conservative", "NDP", and "Other". Once the nominations deadline had passed, and the candidate list was finalized, "Other" was omitted from polls where districts did not have an independent candidate running.
A NOTE ON THE NUMBERS DISCORD: The Numbers Discord community consists of political enthusiasts, and politically active individuals, who share a common passion for Canadian, and global politics. As such, these people are at least somewhat aware of the current Newfoundland political landscape. Most importantly, these individuals are capable of critical thinking, and can easily separate the questions of "who do you think wins the district?" and "who do you WANT to win the district?", something which I have painfully, time after time again, discovered the Twitter/X community is incapable of doing.
A NOTE ON THE NUMBERS DISCORD: The Numbers Discord community consists of political enthusiasts, and politically active individuals, who share a common passion for Canadian, and global politics. As such, these people are at least somewhat aware of the current Newfoundland political landscape. Most importantly, these individuals are capable of critical thinking, and can easily separate the questions of "who do you think wins the district?" and "who do you WANT to win the district?", something which I have painfully, time after time again, discovered the Twitter/X community is incapable of doing.
RESULTS
In total, 341 responses were logged for 40 survey questions, with about an even number of responses for each poll. Polls for the following districts initially resulted in a tie, and as such were re-polled on September 28th in attempt to break the tie: Conception Bay South, Ferryland, Harbour Grace - Port de Grave, Placentia - St. Mary's, St. John's East - Quidi Vidi, and Topsail - Paradise.
MY THOUGHTS: In my opinion, I think this is likely very close to the final election result. While there are some districts I disagree with, like Burin - Grand Bank and Ferryland, those differences sort of come out in the wash. A 20 seat Liberal minority is well within reason, and the PCs gaining in rural areas while the Liberals gain in suburban areas is also quite likely.
I'd like to thank everyone on The Numbers discord who participated in these polls, along with the lively discussions about the districts as we went along.
I'd like to thank everyone on The Numbers discord who participated in these polls, along with the lively discussions about the districts as we went along.