ABOUT NEWFOUNDLAND VOTES
Newfoundland Votes is a site dedicated to election projections and historical election results for the province of Newfoundland & Labrador. This includes up to date projections for the upcoming 2025 Canadian Federal Election as well as the 2025 Newfoundland & Labrador Provincial election. Updates will be published once a week, if new polling data is available.
HOW THE FEDERAL MODEL WORKSThe model is based on a very crude swing based on the 2021 Federal Election results.
Results from the 2021 Federal Election for all of Atlantic Canada are compared to the Newfoundland-only results. The difference between the two is taken as a "correction factor". This correction factor is then applied to new polling; Atlantic Canada sub-samples are converted to hypothetical Newfoundland results. |
HOW THE PROVINCIAL MODEL WORKSThe model is based on a very crude swing based on the 2021 Provincial Election results.
Regions of the province are grouped into the typical Narrative Research regionals. Results from the 2021 election for each region are tabulated. New polling data is projected into these regions using a weighted average of provincial and regional polling numbers. |
SOME DISCLAIMERS
These models are incredibly unsophisticated and should not taken as gospel. There are definitely better ways to model an electoral projection, however this is simple and results are close enough to more sophisticated projection sites.
Total percentages may not add up to 100%.
Town/Poll level projections should not be taken too seriously. It's a fun exercise, but projecting election results to this level is nearly impossible. There are too many other factors at play to apply a simple swing to polling boxes and expect the results to be accurate on election day.
Total percentages may not add up to 100%.
Town/Poll level projections should not be taken too seriously. It's a fun exercise, but projecting election results to this level is nearly impossible. There are too many other factors at play to apply a simple swing to polling boxes and expect the results to be accurate on election day.